Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Thunder CHA @ OKC

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

12-23  |  Road

124
FINAL
Mon, Jan 5 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

30-6  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
HORNETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Oklahoma City)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

34.5%

Thunder Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

CHA By 1-7 points

20.1%

CHA By 8-14 points

9.3%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
106
CHARLOTTE
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
107
CHARLOTTE
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+15.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u235.5 Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u235.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 5, 2026 CHA @ OKC 124 - 97
Nov 15, 2025 OKC @ CHA 109 - 96
Oct 9, 2025 CHA @ OKC 116 - 122
Oct 5, 2025 OKC @ CHA 135 - 114
Mar 21, 2025 CHA @ OKC 106 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +77.6% more
Oklahoma City: 5.6 vs Charlotte: 3.2
Steals (L5) +17.4% more
Oklahoma City: 8.0 vs Charlotte: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5) +8.4%
Oklahoma City: 88.3% vs Charlotte: 79.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Oklahoma City: 49.9% vs Charlotte: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 106.0 124
OKC Score 110.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 40.6 28.0 / 51.0
Assists 26.0 / 27.1 18.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.6 / 3.2 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 46.2 37.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 88.3 / 79.9 67.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 45.6 33.0 / 52.0
Steals 8.0 / 6.8 14.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 13.5 8.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
CHA
OKC
CHA
ML
70% 80-34
61% 60-39
48% 46-49
48% 40-44
ATS
73% 83-30-1
60% 59-40
48% 46-49
48% 40-44
TTL
67% 76-38
58% 57-42
100% 95-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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