PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
21-14 | Road
97
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
21-11 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
SUNS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
PHX By 1-7 points
18.6%
PHX By 8-14 points
8.0%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
110
PHOENIX
Houston
115
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.0
Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u223.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ PHX
119 - 105
Jan 5, 2026
PHX @ HOU
97 - 100
Dec 5, 2025
PHX @ HOU
98 - 117
Nov 24, 2025
HOU @ PHX
114 - 92
Mar 30, 2025
HOU @ PHX
148 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.9% more
Houston: 6.8
vs
Phoenix: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+16.8% more
Houston: 9.4
vs
Phoenix: 8.1
Assists (L5)
+8.2% more
Houston: 25.1
vs
Phoenix: 23.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Houston: 49.3%
vs
Phoenix: 46.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
110.0
97
HOU Score
115.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 36.5
24.0 / 34.0
Assists
25.1 / 23.2
20.0 / 23.0
Blocks
6.8 / 4.2
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 46.6
44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
77.1 / 79.1
71.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
48.7 / 47.7
51.0 / 40.0
Steals
9.4 / 8.1
5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 14.3
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
PHX
HOU
PHX
ML
61%
69-44
57%
60-45
59%
51-35
51%
45-43
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
59-43-3
59%
51-35
51%
45-43
TTL
51%
58-55
59%
61-42-2
100%
86-0
100%
88-0
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