ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
17-20 | Road
100
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
21-15 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
HAWKS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
16.9%
TOR By 1-7 points
24.3%
TOR By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
119
ATLANTA
Toronto
118
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
109
ATLANTA
Toronto
118
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o235.0
Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
ATL @ TOR
100 - 118
Jan 3, 2026
ATL @ TOR
117 - 134
Nov 7, 2025
TOR @ ATL
109 - 97
Oct 22, 2025
TOR @ ATL
138 - 118
Jan 25, 2025
TOR @ ATL
117 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.0% more
Atlanta: 14.2
vs
Toronto: 11.6
Steals (L5)
+15.1% more
Atlanta: 9.8
vs
Toronto: 8.3
Assists (L5)
+14.5% more
Atlanta: 32.7
vs
Toronto: 27.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.1%
Atlanta: 39.5%
vs
Toronto: 32.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
119.0
100
TOR Score
118.0
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 39.5
32.0 / 35.0
Assists
27.9 / 32.7
34.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.8 / 3.2
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 47.4
52.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
84.9 / 71.7
63.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
49.0 / 41.6
46.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.3 / 9.8
10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 14.2
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ATL
TOR
ATL
ML
55%
57-47
50%
52-52
55%
48-39
55%
48-40
ATS
61%
62-40-2
53%
55-48-1
55%
48-39
55%
48-40
TTL
60%
62-42
53%
55-48-1
100%
87-0
100%
88-0
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