DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
23-12 | Road
125
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
19-14 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
76ERS
0%
NUGGETS
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
DEN By 1-7 points
21.6%
DEN By 8-14 points
10.7%
PHI By 1-7 points
27.2%
PHI By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
121
DENVER
Philadelphia
124
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Denver
108
DENVER
Philadelphia
112
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
76ers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
76ers (+15)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.5
Win
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim
u228.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHI @ DEN
96 - 124
Jan 5, 2026
DEN @ PHI
125 - 124
Jan 31, 2025
DEN @ PHI
137 - 134
Jan 21, 2025
PHI @ DEN
109 - 144
Jan 27, 2024
PHI @ DEN
105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+69.7% more
Philadelphia: 7.1
vs
Denver: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+57.5% more
Philadelphia: 8.9
vs
Denver: 5.7
Turnovers (L5)
+22.0% more
Philadelphia: 13.3
vs
Denver: 10.9
Rebounding (L5)
+17.7% more
Philadelphia: 44.0
vs
Denver: 37.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
121.0
125
PHI Score
124.0
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.0 / 35.8
38.0 / 49.0
Assists
24.4 / 26.9
28.0 / 26.0
Blocks
7.1 / 4.2
9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 47.2
47.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 82.9
79.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.0 / 37.4
42.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.9 / 5.7
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 10.9
14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DEN
PHI
DEN
ML
63%
69-40
54%
57-48
48%
45-48
55%
47-39
ATS
65%
71-38
63%
65-38-2
48%
45-48
55%
47-39
TTL
55%
60-49
54%
56-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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