INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
8-6 | Road
67
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
5-9 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
VAQUEROS
100%
CARDINALS
--
VAQUEROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Incarnate Word)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UIW -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
UIW By 1-7 points
5.8%
UIW By 8-14 points
15.3%
RGV By 1-7 points
1.1%
RGV By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Incarnate Word
85
INCARNATE WORD
UT Rio Grande Valley
63
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
Incarnate Word
71
INCARNATE WORD
UT Rio Grande Valley
78
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Vaqueros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Vaqueros (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
RGV @ UIW
106 - 93
Jan 5, 2026
UIW @ RGV
67 - 80
Feb 17, 2025
UIW @ RGV
66 - 60
Jan 20, 2025
RGV @ UIW
85 - 78
Dec 30, 2023
UIW @ RGV
74 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.3% more
Incarnate Word: 4.1
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+10.2% more
Incarnate Word: 6.5
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 5.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.6%
Incarnate Word: 38.7%
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 29.1%
Assists (L5)
+59.1% more
UT Rio Grande Valley: 16.0
vs
Incarnate Word: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UIW Score
85.0
67
RGV Score
63.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.1 / 38.7
28.0 / 30.0
Assists
16.0 / 10.1
23.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.1
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 44.7
48.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 71.5
87.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 35.6
43.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.5
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 9.8
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIW
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
UIW
RGV
UIW
ML
53%
16-14
47%
14-16
54%
15-13
76%
22-7
ATS
53%
16-14
53%
16-14
54%
15-13
77%
23-7
TTL
60%
18-12
60%
18-12
100%
28-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Michigan State's Exhibition Win Reveals Key Player Development a…
Louisville's Yevheniia Putra Opens Up About War-Torn Homeland an…
Sep 25, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Seattle Seahawks punter Mi…
Louisville Cardinals guard Ryan Conwell (3) reacts after drawing…
Ryan Conwell agrees to deal with Heat. Details and more feedback…