ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
21-17-3 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
21-15-6 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Petr Mrazek
#34 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek | None-None | 7.50 | 0.792 | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 4.00 | 0.911 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
7.50
GAA
Ldr 4.00
0.792
Save %
Ldr 0.911
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
DUCKS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
ANA By 1 goal
12.1%
ANA By 2-3 goals
9.3%
WSH By 1 goal
19.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Anaheim
3
ANAHEIM
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Anaheim
2
ANAHEIM
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
ANA @ WSH
4 - 7
Dec 5, 2025
WSH @ ANA
3 - 4
Mar 11, 2025
WSH @ ANA
7 - 4
Jan 14, 2025
ANA @ WSH
0 - 3
Jan 16, 2024
ANA @ WSH
0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+25.8% more
Washington: 19.0
vs
Anaheim: 15.1
Power Play % (L5)
+5.4%
Washington: 13.9%
vs
Anaheim: 8.5%
Takeaways (L5)
+35.5% more
Anaheim: 5.8
vs
Washington: 3.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.1%
Anaheim: 54.7%
vs
Washington: 51.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ANA Score
3.0
4
WSH Score
4.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.0 / 15.1
22.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
51.6 / 54.7
53.8 / 46.2
Hits
19.1 / 18.7
20.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
1391.0 / 854.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.4 / 32.6
29.0 / 45.0
Takeaways
3.7 / 5.8
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
ANA
WSH
ANA
ML
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
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