Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Cowboys SFA @ MCN

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

12-2  |  Road

64
FINAL
Mon, Jan 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Townsley Law Arena
View Odds Details →

MCNEESE

COWBOYSMCN

11-3  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
LUMBERJACKS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
MCNEESE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LumberjacksSFA (-3.5) 0 CowboysMCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

27.4%

Cowboys Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MCN +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MCN)

SFA By 1-7 points

26.8%

SFA By 8-14 points

24.3%

MCN By 1-7 points

16.9%

MCN By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
91
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
85
MCNEESE
Simulated Score
70
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
75
MCNEESE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lumberjacks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cowboys (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 MCN @ SFA 76 - 59
Feb 2, 2026 MCN @ SFA 60 - 67
Jan 5, 2026 SFA @ MCN 64 - 66
Mar 3, 2025 MCN @ SFA 95 - 64
Jan 20, 2025 SFA @ MCN 59 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.3% more
Stephen F. Austin: 43.1 vs McNeese: 34.8
Assists (L5) +17.5% more
Stephen F. Austin: 13.6 vs McNeese: 11.2
Blocks (L5) +48.3% more
McNeese: 5.1 vs Stephen F. Austin: 3.4
Steals (L5) +24.4% more
McNeese: 8.6 vs Stephen F. Austin: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 91.0 64
MCN Score 85.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 33.8 28.0 / 37.0
Assists 11.2 / 13.6 10.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.1 / 3.4 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 43.9 40.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 71.0 62.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 43.1 39.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.6 / 6.9 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 9.9 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
MCN
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
MCN
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MCN
SFA
MCN
SFA
ML
67% 22-11
59% 17-12
88% 28-4
79% 23-6
ATS
76% 25-8
59% 17-12
88% 28-4
79% 23-6
TTL
42% 14-19
62% 18-11
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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