Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Demons @ Colonels NWST @ NICH

NORTHWESTERN STATE

DEMONSNWST

4-10  |  Road

72
FINAL
Mon, Jan 5 • 7:30 PM ET
David R. Stopher Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

6-8  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
📊
COLONELS
0%
DEMONS --
COLONELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Nicholls)
DemonsNWST (-3.5) 0 ColonelsNICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Demons Cover

6.7%

Colonels Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NICH -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)

NWST By 1-7 points

4.8%

NWST By 8-14 points

1.1%

NICH By 1-7 points

15.3%

NICH By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
78
NORTHWESTERN STATE
93
NICHOLLS
Simulated Score
69
NORTHWESTERN STATE
76
NICHOLLS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colonels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colonels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colonels (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Colonels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 NWST @ NICH 47 - 61
Feb 2, 2026 NICH @ NWST 61 - 58
Jan 5, 2026 NWST @ NICH 72 - 74
Feb 10, 2025 NWST @ NICH 72 - 60
Jan 4, 2025 NICH @ NWST 66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.5% more
Nicholls: 10.6 vs Northwestern State: 7.3
Assists (L5) +38.6% more
Nicholls: 15.9 vs Northwestern State: 11.5
Turnovers (L5) +19.3% more
Nicholls: 13.2 vs Northwestern State: 11.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Nicholls: 40.2% vs Northwestern State: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NWST Score 78.0 72
NICH Score 93.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 34.7 24.0 / 23.0
Assists 15.9 / 11.5 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.3 / 1.4 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 42.2 50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 73.8 48.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 29.8 31.0 / 36.0
Steals 10.6 / 7.3 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 11.1 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
NICH Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
NICH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NICH
NWST
NICH
NWST
ML
53% 17-15
68% 21-10
68% 19-9
77% 23-7
ATS
47% 15-17
68% 21-10
68% 19-9
77% 23-7
TTL
56% 18-14
39% 12-19
100% 28-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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