USC
TROJANSUSC
12-2 | Road
51
MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
12-2 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
SPARTANS
0%
TROJANS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
USC By 1-7 points
20.1%
USC By 8-14 points
9.3%
MSU By 1-7 points
27.4%
MSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
84
USC
Michigan State
88
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
USC
68
USC
Michigan State
71
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spartans (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 5, 2026
USC @ MSU
51 - 80
Feb 1, 2025
MSU @ USC
64 - 70
Mar 17, 2023
USC @ MSU
62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+33.3% more
Michigan State: 19.3
vs
USC: 14.4
Rebounding (L5)
+15.2% more
Michigan State: 44.5
vs
USC: 38.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.8%
Michigan State: 38.9%
vs
USC: 27.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Michigan State: 75.5%
vs
USC: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
84.0
51
MSU Score
88.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 27.1
32.0 / 18.0
Assists
19.3 / 14.4
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.9 / 5.3
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 46.1
50.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
75.5 / 70.5
72.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 38.6
39.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.0 / 7.5
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 14.6
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
MSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
USC
MSU
USC
ML
71%
25-10
52%
16-15
61%
20-13
58%
18-13
ATS
71%
25-10
68%
21-10
61%
20-13
58%
18-13
TTL
49%
17-18
68%
21-10
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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