NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
8-28 | Road
106
MIAMI
HEATMIA
19-16 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
HEAT
0%
PELICANS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
NO By 1-7 points
10.7%
NO By 8-14 points
3.3%
MIA By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
114
NEW ORLEANS
Miami
124
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New Orleans
108
NEW ORLEANS
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-9)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u247.0
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u247.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
MIA @ NO
123 - 111
Jan 4, 2026
NO @ MIA
106 - 125
Apr 11, 2025
MIA @ NO
153 - 104
Jan 1, 2025
NO @ MIA
108 - 119
Oct 13, 2024
NO @ MIA
99 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+39.8% more
Miami: 10.4
vs
New Orleans: 7.4
Turnovers (L5)
+23.6% more
Miami: 16.1
vs
New Orleans: 13.0
Assists (L5)
+22.2% more
Miami: 28.7
vs
New Orleans: 23.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.5%
Miami: 86.8%
vs
New Orleans: 78.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
114.0
106
MIA Score
124.0
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 31.0
41.0 / 40.0
Assists
28.7 / 23.5
30.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.6 / 8.1
7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 44.9
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
86.8 / 78.4
72.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.1 / 44.5
43.0 / 42.0
Steals
10.4 / 7.4
19.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 13.0
16.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NO
MIA
NO
ML
48%
46-50
62%
98-61
59%
48-34
58%
48-35
ATS
51%
49-47
68%
107-51-1
59%
48-34
58%
48-35
TTL
59%
57-39
75%
119-40
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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