Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Lakers MEM @ LAL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

15-19  |  Road

114
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 9:30 PM ET
crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

21-11  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

84.1%

Lakers Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

23.0%

MEM By 8-14 points

27.2%

LAL By 1-7 points

10.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
113
MEMPHIS
103
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
110
MEMPHIS
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u239.5 Win
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u239.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MEM @ LAL 114 - 120
Jan 2, 2026 MEM @ LAL 121 - 128
Oct 31, 2025 LAL @ MEM 117 - 112
Mar 29, 2025 LAL @ MEM 134 - 127
Dec 15, 2024 MEM @ LAL 110 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.6% more
Memphis: 6.1 vs Los Angeles: 3.9
Assists (L5) +17.2% more
Memphis: 30.1 vs Los Angeles: 24.9
Rebounding (L5) +8.7% more
Memphis: 42.1 vs Los Angeles: 38.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Memphis: 35.2% vs Los Angeles: 33.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 113.0 114
LAL Score 103.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 35.2 27.0 / 24.0
Assists 24.9 / 30.1 30.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.9 / 6.1 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.4 / 49.1 48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 75.9 80.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 42.1 45.0 / 47.0
Steals 9.4 / 8.8 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 18.0 / 16.5 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
MEM
LAL
MEM
ML
61% 68-43
57% 59-44
54% 49-42
50% 41-41
ATS
61% 67-43-1
63% 65-38
54% 49-42
50% 41-41
TTL
61% 66-43-2
70% 71-31-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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