OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
30-5 | Road
105
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
20-14 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
SUNS
0%
THUNDER
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
OKC By 1-7 points
16.9%
OKC By 8-14 points
6.8%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
Phoenix
119
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+9)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.5
Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 27, 2026
OKC @ PHX
131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026
OKC @ PHX
121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026
PHX @ OKC
107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026
PHX @ OKC
84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026
PHX @ OKC
135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+15.9% more
Oklahoma City: 28.9
vs
Phoenix: 24.3
Blocks (L5)
+10.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.5
vs
Phoenix: 5.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.2%
Oklahoma City: 87.9%
vs
Phoenix: 82.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Oklahoma City: 50.9%
vs
Phoenix: 47.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
113.0
105
PHX Score
119.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 37.1
40.0 / 31.0
Assists
24.3 / 28.9
21.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.8 / 6.5
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 50.9
44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
82.7 / 87.9
72.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
47.1 / 45.6
49.0 / 29.0
Steals
11.1 / 10.9
2.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 13.7
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
OKC
PHX
OKC
ML
57%
60-45
70%
80-34
51%
45-43
48%
46-49
ATS
58%
59-43-3
73%
83-30-1
51%
45-43
48%
46-49
TTL
59%
61-42-2
67%
76-38
100%
88-0
100%
95-0
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