Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Nets DEN @ BKN

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

23-11  |  Road

115
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Barclays Center
View Odds Details →

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

10-22  |  Home

127
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
📊
NETS
100%
NUGGETS --
NETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
BROOKLYN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 NetsBKN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

42.1%

Nets Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BKN +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BKN)

DEN By 1-7 points

26.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

18.6%

BKN By 1-7 points

23.0%

BKN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
115
DENVER
113
BROOKLYN
Simulated Score
105
DENVER
118
BROOKLYN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nuggets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nets (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Nets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 BKN @ DEN 103 - 107
Jan 4, 2026 DEN @ BKN 115 - 127
Jan 10, 2025 BKN @ DEN 105 - 124
Oct 29, 2024 DEN @ BKN 144 - 139
Dec 22, 2023 DEN @ BKN 122 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.3% more
Denver: 25.8 vs Brooklyn: 22.4
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
Denver: 39.6 vs Brooklyn: 34.5
Free Throw % (L5) +5.7%
Denver: 84.9% vs Brooklyn: 79.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.4%
Denver: 36.2% vs Brooklyn: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 115.0 115
BKN Score 113.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 36.2 42.0 / 35.0
Assists 22.4 / 25.8 29.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 46.7 51.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 79.1 / 84.9 84.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 34.5 / 39.6 44.0 / 33.0
Steals 11.5 / 6.5 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 11.3 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
BKN
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BKN
DEN
BKN
DEN
ML
53% 50-45
54% 57-48
59% 48-34
55% 47-39
ATS
52% 48-44-3
63% 65-38-2
59% 48-34
55% 47-39
TTL
57% 54-41
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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