DETROIT
PISTONSDET
25-9 | Road
114
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
20-16 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
CAVALIERS
100%
PISTONS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
13.7%
DET By 8-14 points
24.3%
CLE By 1-7 points
4.0%
CLE By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
129
DETROIT
Cleveland
113
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Detroit
101
DETROIT
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (-5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o237.5
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u237.5
Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
CLE @ DET
125 - 94
May 15, 2026
DET @ CLE
115 - 94
May 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
117 - 113
May 11, 2026
DET @ CLE
103 - 112
May 9, 2026
DET @ CLE
109 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.4% more
Detroit: 10.9
vs
Cleveland: 7.9
Turnovers (L5)
+14.4% more
Detroit: 17.9
vs
Cleveland: 15.3
Blocks (L5)
+11.6% more
Detroit: 7.2
vs
Cleveland: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.1%
Detroit: 78.1%
vs
Cleveland: 74.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
129.0
114
CLE Score
113.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 36.6
33.0 / 38.0
Assists
30.5 / 27.4
23.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.3 / 7.2
10.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 50.7
44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 78.1
87.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
50.1 / 41.8
44.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.9 / 10.9
11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 17.9
17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
60%
69-46
55%
64-53
56%
55-44
49%
47-49
ATS
67%
75-37-3
53%
60-54-3
56%
55-44
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
70-46-1
100%
99-0
100%
96-0
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