Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Magic IND @ ORL

INDIANA

PACERSIND

6-29  |  Road

127
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 3:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

19-16  |  Home

135
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
PACERS --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

46.0%

Magic Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

IND By 1-7 points

26.2%

IND By 8-14 points

16.9%

ORL By 1-7 points

24.3%

ORL By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
112
INDIANA
111
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
114
INDIANA
118
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Magic Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Magic (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Magic (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 IND @ ORL 128 - 126
Jan 4, 2026 IND @ ORL 127 - 135
Dec 31, 2025 ORL @ IND 112 - 110
Apr 11, 2025 ORL @ IND 129 - 115
Nov 13, 2024 IND @ ORL 90 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.0% more
Indiana: 14.7 vs Orlando: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Indiana: 38.4% vs Orlando: 32.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.4%
Indiana: 79.2% vs Orlando: 75.8%
Blocks (L5) +21.4% more
Orlando: 4.5 vs Indiana: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 112.0 127
ORL Score 111.0 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.0 / 38.4 47.0 / 44.0
Assists 27.3 / 25.7 34.0 / 38.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.7 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 47.5 56.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 75.8 / 79.2 76.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 38.1 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.3 / 8.8 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 14.7 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
IND
ORL
IND
ML
61% 65-42
48% 47-50
56% 51-40
54% 45-38
ATS
64% 68-38-1
59% 57-40
56% 51-40
54% 45-38
TTL
57% 61-46
54% 52-45
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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