MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
22-13-6 | Road
4
DALLAS
STARSDAL
25-9-7 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 2.83 | 0.889 | -- |
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 3.79 | 0.857 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.83 Ldr
GAA
3.79
0.889 Ldr
Save %
0.857
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
0%
STARS
100%
CANADIENS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
MTL By 1 goal
19.7%
MTL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
DAL By 1 goal
12.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Montreal
3
MONTREAL
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Canadiens
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
MTL @ DAL
4 - 3
Nov 13, 2025
DAL @ MTL
7 - 0
Jan 16, 2025
MTL @ DAL
3 - 1
Jan 11, 2025
DAL @ MTL
2 - 1
Feb 10, 2024
DAL @ MTL
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+18.5% more
Montreal: 5.1
vs
Dallas: 4.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.8%
Montreal: 52.7%
vs
Dallas: 48.9%
Power Play % (L5)
+2.9%
Dallas: 9.5%
vs
Montreal: 6.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTL Score
3.0
4
DAL Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.9 / 13.7
15.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
48.9 / 52.7
57.8 / 42.2
Hits
19.8 / 20.0
15.0 / 30.0
Power Play %
9.5 / 6.6
0.0 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
26.2 / 26.6
27.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 5.1
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MTL
DAL
MTL
ML
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
TTL
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
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