Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pilots @ Dons PORT @ SF

PORTLAND

PILOTSPORT

7-9  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 7:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

10-6  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
0%
📊
DONS
100%
PILOTS --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Portland)
PilotsPORT (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pilots Cover

97.1%

Dons Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PORT -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PORT)

PORT By 1-7 points

9.3%

PORT By 8-14 points

20.1%

SF By 1-7 points

2.2%

SF By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
88
PORTLAND
69
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
65
PORTLAND
78
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pilots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pilots (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Dons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 PORT @ SF 65 - 82
Jan 4, 2026 PORT @ SF 68 - 73
Jan 9, 2025 PORT @ SF 72 - 81
Mar 9, 2024 PORT @ SF 51 - 72
Jan 27, 2024 SF @ PORT 76 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.0% more
Portland: 3.8 vs San Francisco: 2.5
Assists (L5) +24.3% more
Portland: 17.2 vs San Francisco: 13.0
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
Portland: 11.7 vs San Francisco: 9.7
Steals (L5) +13.0% more
Portland: 5.8 vs San Francisco: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PORT Score 88.0 68
SF Score 69.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.4 / 24.1 33.0 / 22.0
Assists 13.0 / 17.2 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.8 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 43.2 38.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 72.8 62.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 32.5 43.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.8 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 11.7 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
SF Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.2
SF
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.0
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PORT
SF
PORT
ML
39% 13-20
48% 16-17
64% 21-12
82% 27-6
ATS
42% 14-19
67% 22-11
64% 21-12
82% 28-6
TTL
73% 24-9
55% 18-15
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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