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NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

8-4  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 3:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

8-5  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
AGGIES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
108.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Mexico State)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

65.5%

Bears Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NMSU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

27.4%

NMSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

MOST By 1-7 points

20.1%

MOST By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
56
NEW MEXICO STATE
52
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
72
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 108.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 MOST @ NMSU 84 - 75
Jan 4, 2026 NMSU @ MOST 82 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +12.7% more
New Mexico State: 11.8 vs Missouri State: 10.3
Assists (L5) +8.6% more
New Mexico State: 13.8 vs Missouri State: 12.6
Rebounding (L5) +9.4% more
Missouri State: 34.1 vs New Mexico State: 31.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 56.0 82
MOST Score 52.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 34.4 48.0 / 39.0
Assists 12.6 / 13.8 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.7 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.7 / 45.5 46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 70.8 74.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 31.2 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.9 / 7.0 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 11.8 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
NMSU
MOST
NMSU
ML
65% 22-12
61% 19-12
62% 21-13
67% 20-10
ATS
68% 23-11
65% 20-11
62% 21-13
67% 20-10
TTL
44% 15-19
45% 14-17
100% 34-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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