Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Bulldogs LMU @ GONZ

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

10-6  |  Road

47
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 9:00 PM ET
McCarthey Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

15-1  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
LIONS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
102.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Gonzaga)
LionsLMU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

11.5%

Bulldogs Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

LMU By 1-7 points

8.0%

LMU By 8-14 points

2.2%

GONZ By 1-7 points

20.1%

GONZ By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
45
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
57
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
71
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
88
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 102.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 LMU @ GONZ 47 - 82
Feb 6, 2025 LMU @ GONZ 53 - 73
Jan 4, 2025 GONZ @ LMU 96 - 68
Feb 15, 2024 GONZ @ LMU 91 - 74
Jan 30, 2024 LMU @ GONZ 58 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +56.5% more
Gonzaga: 19.8 vs Loyola Marymount: 12.7
Steals (L5) +49.4% more
Gonzaga: 8.6 vs Loyola Marymount: 5.8
Rebounding (L5) +31.0% more
Gonzaga: 41.4 vs Loyola Marymount: 31.6
Turnovers (L5) +18.5% more
Gonzaga: 11.5 vs Loyola Marymount: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LMU Score 45.0 47
GONZ Score 57.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 38.2 30.0 / 26.0
Assists 19.8 / 12.7 20.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.4 / 47.0 54.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 66.7 40.0 / 43.0
Rebounding 41.4 / 31.6 46.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.6 / 5.8 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 9.7 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
LMU
GONZ
LMU
ML
71% 25-10
53% 17-15
69% 20-9
50% 16-16
ATS
69% 24-11
47% 15-17
69% 20-9
50% 16-16
TTL
57% 20-15
62% 20-12
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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