YOUNGSTOWN STATE
PENGUINSYSU
8-7 | Road
79
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
11-5 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
NORSE
100%
PENGUINS
--
NORSE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Youngstown State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around YSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YSU)
YSU By 1-7 points
18.6%
YSU By 8-14 points
26.8%
NKU By 1-7 points
6.8%
NKU By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Youngstown State
82
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Northern Kentucky
69
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Youngstown State
73
YOUNGSTOWN STATE
Northern Kentucky
78
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Norse
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Penguins (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Norse (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
NKU @ YSU
58 - 64
Jan 4, 2026
YSU @ NKU
79 - 94
Mar 1, 2025
YSU @ NKU
79 - 88
Jan 8, 2025
NKU @ YSU
61 - 72
Jan 28, 2024
NKU @ YSU
52 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.5% more
Youngstown State: 3.5
vs
Northern Kentucky: 1.9
Rebounding (L5)
+13.0% more
Youngstown State: 36.6
vs
Northern Kentucky: 31.8
Steals (L5)
+31.0% more
Northern Kentucky: 9.4
vs
Youngstown State: 7.2
Turnovers (L5)
+14.9% more
Northern Kentucky: 12.3
vs
Youngstown State: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YSU Score
82.0
79
NKU Score
69.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 32.1
45.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.7 / 14.6
19.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.5
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 44.0
52.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
71.0 / 71.8
78.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 36.6
45.0 / 33.0
Steals
9.4 / 7.2
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 10.7
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YSU
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YSU
10-18-1
(35.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -1.3
NKU
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
YSU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.2
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
YSU
NKU
YSU
ML
53%
18-16
57%
17-13
65%
22-12
67%
20-10
ATS
56%
19-15
47%
14-16
65%
22-12
67%
20-10
TTL
68%
23-11
60%
18-12
100%
34-0
100%
30-0