Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Hurricane @ Mean Green TLSA @ UNT

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

13-1  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 4:00 PM ET
The Super Pit
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

9-5  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN HURRICANE
100%
📊
MEAN GREEN
0%
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
MEAN GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (North Texas)
Golden HurricaneTLSA (-3.5) 0 Mean GreenUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Hurricane Cover

18.4%

Mean Green Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

TLSA By 1-7 points

12.2%

TLSA By 8-14 points

4.0%

UNT By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNT By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
83
TULSA
92
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
68
TULSA
72
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mean Green Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mean Green (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Mean Green (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UNT @ TLSA 84 - 90
Jan 28, 2026 UNT @ TLSA 66 - 82
Jan 4, 2026 TLSA @ UNT 67 - 72
Mar 14, 2025 TLSA @ UNT 59 - 77
Feb 19, 2025 TLSA @ UNT 44 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +107.1% more
North Texas: 5.3 vs Tulsa: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +44.5% more
North Texas: 14.4 vs Tulsa: 10.0
Steals (L5) +33.7% more
North Texas: 12.2 vs Tulsa: 9.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +23.4%
Tulsa: 46.7% vs North Texas: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 83.0 67
UNT Score 92.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 23.4 / 46.7 44.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.5 / 16.1 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 5.3 / 2.5 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 52.2 46.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 64.9 / 79.1 78.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 31.0 / 39.9 28.0 / 31.0
Steals 12.2 / 9.1 7.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 10.0 8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
UNT
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
UNT
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
TLSA
UNT
TLSA
ML
70% 23-10
66% 25-13
59% 19-13
64% 23-13
ATS
52% 17-16
74% 28-10
59% 19-13
64% 23-13
TTL
67% 22-11
58% 22-16
100% 32-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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