NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
11-3 | Road
62
EVANSVILLE
PURPLE ACESEVAN
4-11 | Home
48
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
PURPLE ACES
100%
PANTHERS
--
PURPLE ACES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNI -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
UNI By 1-7 points
2.7%
UNI By 8-14 points
9.3%
EVAN By 1-7 points
0.4%
EVAN By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Iowa
94
NORTHERN IOWA
Evansville
68
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
Northern Iowa
74
NORTHERN IOWA
Evansville
71
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Panthers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o129.5
Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u129.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 5, 2026
EVAN @ UNI
59 - 68
Jan 31, 2026
EVAN @ UNI
55 - 71
Jan 4, 2026
UNI @ EVAN
62 - 48
Jan 14, 2025
EVAN @ UNI
56 - 73
Jan 23, 2024
EVAN @ UNI
63 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+36.2% more
Northern Iowa: 7.5
vs
Evansville: 4.8
Assists (L5)
+26.0% more
Northern Iowa: 14.3
vs
Evansville: 10.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.4%
Northern Iowa: 48.5%
vs
Evansville: 37.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+66.4% more
Evansville: 15.9
vs
Northern Iowa: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNI Score
94.0
62
EVAN Score
68.0
48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 30.4
7.0 / 46.0
Assists
10.6 / 14.3
12.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.4
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
37.1 / 48.5
42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
70.8 / 71.5
69.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 33.1
25.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.8 / 7.5
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 9.5
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
EVAN
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
EVAN
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
UNI
EVAN
UNI
ML
56%
18-14
51%
18-17
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
ATS
66%
21-11
49%
17-18
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
TTL
62%
20-12
69%
24-11
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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