FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
8-7 | Road
83
NIAGARA
PURPLE EAGLESNIA
4-9 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
STAGS
--
PURPLE EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAIR -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
FAIR By 1-7 points
20.1%
FAIR By 8-14 points
27.2%
NIA By 1-7 points
8.0%
NIA By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairfield
88
FAIRFIELD
Niagara
76
NIAGARA
Simulated Score
Fairfield
69
FAIRFIELD
Niagara
73
NIAGARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stags
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Purple Eagles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stags (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Purple Eagles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 22, 2026
NIA @ FAIR
61 - 62
Jan 4, 2026
FAIR @ NIA
83 - 75
Jan 16, 2025
NIA @ FAIR
66 - 70
Feb 16, 2024
NIA @ FAIR
65 - 63
Jan 12, 2024
FAIR @ NIA
72 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+38.1% more
Fairfield: 41.8
vs
Niagara: 25.8
Blocks (L5)
+32.6% more
Fairfield: 3.6
vs
Niagara: 2.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Fairfield: 35.8%
vs
Niagara: 31.5%
Steals (L5)
+20.9% more
Niagara: 6.5
vs
Fairfield: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score
88.0
83
NIA Score
76.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 35.8
39.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.8 / 12.9
14.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.4 / 3.6
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 43.6
54.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
73.8 / 71.8
100.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
25.8 / 41.8
24.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.5 / 5.4
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 9.1
9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
NIA
8-22-0
(26.7%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
NIA
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIA
FAIR
NIA
FAIR
ML
55%
16-13
55%
18-15
72%
21-8
61%
20-13
ATS
69%
20-9
48%
16-17
72%
21-8
61%
20-13
TTL
55%
16-13
48%
16-17
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
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