SIENA
SAINTSSIE
9-5 | Road
74
RIDER
BRONCSRID
1-11 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
BRONCS
100%
SAINTS
--
BRONCS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Siena)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIE -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)
SIE By 1-7 points
3.3%
SIE By 8-14 points
10.7%
RID By 1-7 points
0.5%
RID By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Siena
81
SIENA
Rider
56
RIDER
Simulated Score
Siena
70
SIENA
Rider
73
RIDER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Saints
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Saints (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Broncs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
RID @ SIE
61 - 76
Jan 4, 2026
SIE @ RID
74 - 65
Mar 11, 2025
SIE @ RID
76 - 78
Feb 8, 2025
SIE @ RID
59 - 61
Feb 2, 2024
SIE @ RID
50 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.0% more
Siena: 8.3
vs
Rider: 5.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.8%
Siena: 80.7%
vs
Rider: 67.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+31.7% more
Rider: 12.1
vs
Siena: 9.2
Blocks (L5)
+24.5% more
Rider: 3.9
vs
Siena: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIE Score
81.0
74
RID Score
56.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.8 / 27.8
18.0 / 40.0
Assists
12.3 / 12.6
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.1
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.1 / 40.8
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
67.9 / 80.7
85.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 32.8
26.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.9 / 8.3
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 9.2
7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RID
SIE
RID
SIE
ML
72%
21-8
66%
23-12
66%
19-10
48%
16-17
ATS
72%
21-8
66%
23-12
66%
19-10
48%
16-17
TTL
62%
18-11
54%
19-16
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
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