Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Bobcats MSM @ QUIN

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

5-10  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 2:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

QUINNIPIAC

BOBCATSQUIN

10-5  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
BOBCATS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 BobcatsQUIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

88.5%

Bobcats Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSM -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)

MSM By 1-7 points

20.1%

MSM By 8-14 points

27.2%

QUIN By 1-7 points

8.0%

QUIN By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
57
QUINNIPIAC
Simulated Score
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
76
QUINNIPIAC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 QUIN @ MSM 77 - 62
Jan 4, 2026 MSM @ QUIN 69 - 80
Mar 6, 2025 MSM @ QUIN 70 - 79
Jan 18, 2025 QUIN @ MSM 91 - 57
Feb 10, 2024 QUIN @ MSM 79 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.8% more
Mount St. Mary's: 16.8 vs Quinnipiac: 12.6
Blocks (L5) +69.4% more
Quinnipiac: 5.3 vs Mount St. Mary's: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5) +16.4%
Quinnipiac: 79.2% vs Mount St. Mary's: 62.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.9%
Quinnipiac: 34.6% vs Mount St. Mary's: 22.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 69.0 69
QUIN Score 57.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 22.7 37.0 / 32.0
Assists 14.3 / 13.9 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.3 / 3.1 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 43.8 46.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 79.2 / 62.8 78.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 39.1 33.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.5 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 16.8 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
QUIN Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
QUIN
13-17-1 (43.3%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
QUIN
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
QUIN
MSM
QUIN
MSM
ML
66% 21-11
53% 17-15
53% 17-15
61% 19-12
ATS
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
61% 19-12
TTL
62% 20-12
81% 26-6
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
WVU Lands Major Eligibility Boost: Lorient and Buchanan Cleared …
si 1 week, 1 day ago
West Virginia Mountaineers Dominate UT Martin 52-7, Improve to 2…
wvnews 3 weeks, 3 days ago
West Virginia Mountaineers Dominate UT Martin Skyhawks 52-7 in H…
wvnews 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Quincy University's Collin Parsons Aims Higher After Breakout So…
whig 1 month, 3 weeks ago
How Mouhamed Sylla Could Revolutionize West Virginia's Offensive…
theintermountain 2 months ago