IONA
GAELSIONA
10-5 | Road
38
MARIST
RED FOXESMRST
8-5 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
RED FOXES
0%
GAELS
--
RED FOXES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Marist)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)
IONA By 1-7 points
23.0%
IONA By 8-14 points
12.2%
MRST By 1-7 points
26.8%
MRST By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Iona
65
IONA
Marist
67
MARIST
Simulated Score
Iona
68
IONA
Marist
72
MARIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Foxes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Foxes (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Red Foxes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
IONA @ MRST
38 - 83
Feb 8, 2025
IONA @ MRST
75 - 71
Jan 3, 2025
MRST @ IONA
70 - 65
Mar 3, 2024
IONA @ MRST
71 - 64
Nov 29, 2023
MRST @ IONA
68 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.5%
Marist: 79.4%
vs
Iona: 71.9%
Blocks (L5)
+57.5% more
Iona: 3.6
vs
Marist: 1.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Iona: 33.8%
vs
Marist: 25.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Iona: 44.3%
vs
Marist: 39.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IONA Score
65.0
38
MRST Score
67.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.6 / 33.8
28.0 / 7.0
Assists
13.1 / 14.1
23.0 / 6.0
Blocks
1.5 / 3.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.3 / 44.3
46.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
79.4 / 71.9
87.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 35.1
42.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.1 / 7.3
14.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 12.8
6.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IONA
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
MRST
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IONA
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
MRST
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRST
IONA
MRST
IONA
ML
55%
17-14
41%
13-19
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
ATS
74%
23-8
53%
17-15
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
TTL
52%
16-15
66%
21-11
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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