SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
8-5 | Road
67
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BLUE RAIDERSMTSU
8-5 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
BEARKATS
--
BLUE RAIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)
SHSU By 1-7 points
27.4%
SHSU By 8-14 points
21.6%
MTSU By 1-7 points
20.1%
MTSU By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Sam Houston
95
SAM HOUSTON
Middle Tennessee
91
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Sam Houston
69
SAM HOUSTON
Middle Tennessee
73
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bearkats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Raiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Raiders (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Blue Raiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 18, 2026
MTSU @ SHSU
70 - 78
Jan 4, 2026
SHSU @ MTSU
67 - 68
Feb 22, 2025
SHSU @ MTSU
70 - 74
Jan 23, 2025
MTSU @ SHSU
77 - 75
Mar 2, 2024
MTSU @ SHSU
64 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+26.4% more
Sam Houston: 47.1
vs
Middle Tennessee: 34.7
Steals (L5)
+20.1% more
Sam Houston: 8.5
vs
Middle Tennessee: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+17.3%
Sam Houston: 69.5%
vs
Middle Tennessee: 52.2%
Blocks (L5)
+65.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 4.4
vs
Sam Houston: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score
95.0
67
MTSU Score
91.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 36.0
38.0 / 45.0
Assists
15.1 / 16.1
10.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.4 / 2.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 47.1
39.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
52.2 / 69.5
90.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 47.1
31.0 / 40.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.5
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 11.8
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
MTSU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
MTSU
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: 2.7
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
SHSU
MTSU
SHSU
ML
56%
18-14
55%
18-15
69%
22-10
74%
23-8
ATS
75%
24-8
64%
21-12
69%
22-10
74%
23-8
TTL
53%
17-15
48%
16-17
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
