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UAB

BLAZERSUAB

9-5  |  Road

109
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 1:00 PM ET
Yuengling Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

8-5  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
BLAZERS
0%
📊
BULLS
100%
BLAZERS --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
UAB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (UAB)
BlazersUAB (-3.5) 0 BullsUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blazers Cover

90.3%

Bulls Cover

9.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UAB -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAB)

UAB By 1-7 points

18.6%

UAB By 8-14 points

26.8%

USF By 1-7 points

6.8%

USF By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
106
UAB
93
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
70
UAB
75
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blazers (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o163.5 Win
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 22, 2026 USF @ UAB 82 - 69
Jan 4, 2026 UAB @ USF 109 - 106
Feb 16, 2025 USF @ UAB 78 - 85
Jan 15, 2025 UAB @ USF 92 - 83
Mar 16, 2024 UAB @ USF 93 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
UAB: 46.6% vs South Florida: 44.2%
Turnovers (L5) +48.7% more
South Florida: 11.1 vs UAB: 7.4
Blocks (L5) +38.6% more
South Florida: 4.3 vs UAB: 3.1
Steals (L5) +35.4% more
South Florida: 9.1 vs UAB: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 106.0 109
USF Score 93.0 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 29.5 35.0 / 40.0
Assists 17.8 / 15.1 22.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.1 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.6 43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 69.8 64.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 36.9 61.0 / 49.0
Steals 9.1 / 6.7 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 7.4 14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.8
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
UAB
USF
UAB
ML
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
52% 16-15
41% 13-19
ATS
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
52% 16-15
41% 13-19
TTL
52% 17-16
69% 22-10
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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