Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaspers @ Warriors MAN @ MRMK

MANHATTAN

JASPERSMAN

7-8  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sun, Jan 4 • 12:00 PM ET
Lawler Arena
View Odds Details →

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

8-7  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
JASPERS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
JASPERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MANHATTAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Manhattan)
JaspersMAN (-3.5) 0 WarriorsMRMK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaspers Cover

93.3%

Warriors Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MAN -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MAN)

MAN By 1-7 points

15.3%

MAN By 8-14 points

25.3%

MRMK By 1-7 points

4.8%

MRMK By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
64
MANHATTAN
49
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
65
MANHATTAN
68
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaspers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaspers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MAN @ MRMK 66 - 73
Feb 14, 2025 MRMK @ MAN 75 - 79
Jan 12, 2025 MAN @ MRMK 62 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +17.6% more
Manhattan: 33.1 vs Merrimack: 27.3
Turnovers (L5) +15.4% more
Manhattan: 10.6 vs Merrimack: 8.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
Manhattan: 82.6% vs Merrimack: 77.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Manhattan: 32.8% vs Merrimack: 31.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MAN Score 64.0 66
MRMK Score 49.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 32.8 31.0 / 25.0
Assists 12.3 / 11.9 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 6.5 / 2.5 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 43.8 48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 82.6 65.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 27.3 / 33.1 32.0 / 37.0
Steals 8.3 / 8.5 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 10.6 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MAN
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MAN
11-19-1 (36.7%)
Margin: -4.9 ATS +/-: -3.1
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: +2.4
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
MAN
MRMK
MAN
ML
47% 16-18
52% 16-15
65% 22-12
68% 21-10
ATS
53% 18-16
52% 16-15
65% 22-12
69% 22-10
TTL
62% 21-13
77% 24-7
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 1 hour, 24 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 1 hour, 36 minutes ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 7 hours ago
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
yahoo 2 days, 13 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago