NAVY
MIDSHIPMENNAVY
9-5 | Road
65
HOLY CROSS
CRUSADERSHC
6-8 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
MIDSHIPMEN
0%
CRUSADERS
100%
MIDSHIPMEN
--
CRUSADERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Navy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NAVY -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)
NAVY By 1-7 points
13.7%
NAVY By 8-14 points
24.3%
HC By 1-7 points
4.0%
HC By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Navy
77
NAVY
Holy Cross
61
HOLY CROSS
Simulated Score
Navy
68
NAVY
Holy Cross
75
HOLY CROSS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Midshipmen
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crusaders
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Midshipmen (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Crusaders (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
HC @ NAVY
68 - 85
Jan 3, 2026
NAVY @ HC
65 - 58
Feb 23, 2025
HC @ NAVY
77 - 83
Jan 8, 2025
NAVY @ HC
59 - 70
Feb 25, 2024
HC @ NAVY
66 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.6% more
Navy: 3.0
vs
Holy Cross: 1.6
Assists (L5)
+24.3% more
Navy: 14.8
vs
Holy Cross: 11.2
Rebounding (L5)
+16.4% more
Navy: 37.6
vs
Holy Cross: 31.4
Steals (L5)
+15.2% more
Navy: 6.3
vs
Holy Cross: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score
77.0
65
HC Score
61.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
21.3 / 35.0
29.0 / 17.0
Assists
11.2 / 14.8
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.6 / 3.0
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 45.6
36.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 78.8
79.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
31.4 / 37.6
32.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.4 / 6.3
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 10.9
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
HC
11-22-0
(33.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
Advantage
20-11-1
(64.5%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +3.7
HC
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.3
HC
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HC
NAVY
HC
NAVY
ML
52%
16-15
79%
26-7
61%
19-12
55%
18-15
ATS
55%
17-14
73%
24-9
64%
21-12
55%
18-15
TTL
58%
18-13
73%
24-9
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
