PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
15-20 | Road
115
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
25-9 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SPURS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
POR By 1-7 points
5.8%
POR By 8-14 points
1.4%
SA By 1-7 points
16.9%
SA By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
114
PORTLAND
San Antonio
128
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Portland
108
PORTLAND
San Antonio
115
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-8)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o234.5
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 28, 2026
POR @ SA
95 - 114
Apr 26, 2026
SA @ POR
114 - 93
Apr 24, 2026
SA @ POR
120 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
POR @ SA
106 - 103
Apr 19, 2026
POR @ SA
98 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.1%
San Antonio: 79.9%
vs
Portland: 74.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
San Antonio: 46.0%
vs
Portland: 44.3%
Blocks (L5)
+30.2% more
Portland: 4.5
vs
San Antonio: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+20.5% more
Portland: 16.3
vs
San Antonio: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
114.0
115
SA Score
128.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.7 / 36.1
32.0 / 42.0
Assists
24.5 / 24.6
27.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.5
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 44.3
43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 74.8
87.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
48.7 / 46.8
48.0 / 51.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.8
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 16.3
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
POR
SA
POR
ML
60%
111-73
53%
56-49
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
ATS
58%
107-76-1
62%
65-39-1
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
TTL
74%
134-47-3
56%
58-46-1
100%
105-0
100%
89-0
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