AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
3-10 | Road
39
UNLV
REBELSUNLV
6-6 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
REBELS
100%
FALCONS
--
REBELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Air Force)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AF -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AF)
AF By 1-7 points
0.0%
AF By 8-14 points
0.1%
UNLV By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNLV By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Air Force
95
AIR FORCE
UNLV
50
UNLV
Simulated Score
Air Force
65
AIR FORCE
UNLV
72
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Falcons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rebels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Falcons (-14.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim
Rebels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UNLV @ AF
91 - 66
Jan 3, 2026
AF @ UNLV
39 - 67
Mar 12, 2025
AF @ UNLV
59 - 68
Feb 11, 2025
AF @ UNLV
52 - 77
Dec 31, 2024
UNLV @ AF
77 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.7% more
Air Force: 14.9
vs
UNLV: 12.7
Steals (L5)
+72.5% more
UNLV: 12.1
vs
Air Force: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+55.2% more
UNLV: 15.2
vs
Air Force: 9.8
Blocks (L5)
+55.0% more
UNLV: 6.6
vs
Air Force: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AF Score
95.0
39
UNLV Score
50.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.0 / 21.4
24.0 / 16.0
Assists
15.2 / 9.8
14.0 / 9.0
Blocks
6.6 / 4.3
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 45.1
43.0 / 28.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 62.9
55.0 / 46.0
Rebounding
39.0 / 27.0
49.0 / 32.0
Steals
12.1 / 7.0
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 14.9
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
UNLV
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
UNLV
Advantage
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
AF
UNLV
AF
ML
50%
17-17
81%
26-6
59%
20-14
62%
20-12
ATS
65%
22-12
69%
22-10
59%
20-14
62%
20-12
TTL
62%
21-13
69%
22-10
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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