Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pirates @ Seahawks HAMP @ UNCW

HAMPTON

PIRATESHAMP

8-7  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Trask Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

13-2  |  Home

49
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
PIRATES --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
UNC WILMINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (UNC Wilmington)
PiratesHAMP (-3.5) 0 SeahawksUNCW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

0.1%

Seahawks Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCW -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCW)

HAMP By 1-7 points

0.1%

HAMP By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNCW By 1-7 points

0.8%

UNCW By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
66
HAMPTON
97
UNC WILMINGTON
Simulated Score
65
HAMPTON
78
UNC WILMINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 24, 2026 UNCW @ HAMP 75 - 67
Jan 3, 2026 HAMP @ UNCW 45 - 49
Mar 9, 2025 HAMP @ UNCW 65 - 79
Feb 22, 2025 UNCW @ HAMP 70 - 83
Jan 25, 2025 HAMP @ UNCW 62 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +20.0% more
UNC Wilmington: 40.8 vs Hampton: 34.0
Blocks (L5) +15.4% more
UNC Wilmington: 2.5 vs Hampton: 2.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
UNC Wilmington: 30.3% vs Hampton: 26.5%
Turnovers (L5) +25.9% more
Hampton: 12.4 vs UNC Wilmington: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAMP Score 66.0 45
UNCW Score 97.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.3 / 26.5 19.0 / 11.0
Assists 12.6 / 11.8 11.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.1 9.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 45.0 39.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 70.7 38.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 40.8 / 34.0 43.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.6 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 12.4 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAMP
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAMP Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
UNCW
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HAMP
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.1
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCW
HAMP
UNCW
HAMP
ML
64% 21-12
53% 17-15
52% 17-16
75% 24-8
ATS
58% 19-14
50% 16-16
52% 17-16
75% 24-8
TTL
61% 20-13
68% 21-10-1
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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