PORTLAND STATE
VIKINGSPRST
7-5 | Road
93
IDAHO STATE
BENGALSIDST
8-6 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
100%
BENGALS
0%
VIKINGS
--
BENGALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Idaho State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)
PRST By 1-7 points
1.4%
PRST By 8-14 points
0.2%
IDST By 1-7 points
6.8%
IDST By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland State
77
PORTLAND STATE
Idaho State
98
IDAHO STATE
Simulated Score
Portland State
69
PORTLAND STATE
Idaho State
75
IDAHO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bengals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bengals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bengals (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Bengals (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
IDST @ PRST
78 - 85
Feb 2, 2026
IDST @ PRST
65 - 88
Jan 3, 2026
PRST @ IDST
93 - 87
Feb 20, 2025
PRST @ IDST
74 - 82
Jan 25, 2025
IDST @ PRST
59 - 76
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Idaho State: 42.5%
vs
Portland State: 33.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.6%
Idaho State: 73.5%
vs
Portland State: 64.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Idaho State: 47.6%
vs
Portland State: 44.4%
Blocks (L5)
+31.5% more
Portland State: 5.8
vs
Idaho State: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PRST Score
77.0
93
IDST Score
98.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.5 / 33.9
41.0 / 33.0
Assists
15.2 / 15.6
18.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.8
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 44.4
45.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
73.5 / 64.9
67.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 41.0
32.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.9 / 8.0
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 12.1
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRST
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
IDST
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRST
Advantage
18-9-1
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
IDST
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PRST
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.9
IDST
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDST
PRST
IDST
PRST
ML
59%
19-13
65%
20-11
72%
23-9
71%
22-9
ATS
50%
16-16
71%
22-9
72%
23-9
71%
22-9
TTL
59%
19-13
47%
14-16-1
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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