Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Wildcats SAC @ WEB

SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

4-9  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 9:00 PM ET
Dee Events Center
View Odds Details →

WEBER STATE

WILDCATSWEB

6-8  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
HORNETS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WEBER STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Weber State)
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 WildcatsWEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

30.9%

Wildcats Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WEB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WEB)

SAC By 1-7 points

18.6%

SAC By 8-14 points

8.0%

WEB By 1-7 points

27.2%

WEB By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
83
SACRAMENTO STATE
88
WEBER STATE
Simulated Score
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
72
WEBER STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o166.5 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 WEB @ SAC 90 - 104
Jan 3, 2026 SAC @ WEB 82 - 95
Mar 8, 2025 SAC @ WEB 70 - 83
Feb 20, 2025 SAC @ WEB 80 - 77
Jan 25, 2025 WEB @ SAC 87 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +64.6% more
Weber State: 16.4 vs Sacramento State: 10.0
Steals (L5) +15.7% more
Weber State: 8.2 vs Sacramento State: 7.1
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
Weber State: 39.6 vs Sacramento State: 35.8
Field Goal % (L5) +8.4%
Weber State: 47.7% vs Sacramento State: 39.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 83.0 82
WEB Score 88.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 29.1 50.0 / 33.0
Assists 16.4 / 10.0 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.0 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 39.2 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 80.3 76.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 35.8 42.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.2 / 7.1 12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 11.0 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
WEB Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
WEB Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
WEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WEB
SAC
WEB
SAC
ML
73% 22-8
57% 17-13
73% 22-8
87% 26-4
ATS
63% 19-11
73% 22-8
74% 23-8
87% 27-4
TTL
83% 25-5
60% 18-12
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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