Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hawks @ Raptors ATL @ TOR

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

17-19  |  Road

117
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

20-15  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
HAWKS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HawksATL (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

46.0%

Raptors Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

ATL By 1-7 points

26.2%

ATL By 8-14 points

16.9%

TOR By 1-7 points

24.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
119
ATLANTA
118
TORONTO
Simulated Score
108
ATLANTA
112
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.0 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 5, 2026 ATL @ TOR 100 - 118
Jan 3, 2026 ATL @ TOR 117 - 134
Nov 7, 2025 TOR @ ATL 109 - 97
Oct 22, 2025 TOR @ ATL 138 - 118
Jan 25, 2025 TOR @ ATL 117 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.0% more
Atlanta: 9.7 vs Toronto: 7.4
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Atlanta: 13.3 vs Toronto: 10.4
Assists (L5) +15.5% more
Atlanta: 33.0 vs Toronto: 27.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.2%
Atlanta: 37.2% vs Toronto: 29.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 119.0 117
TOR Score 118.0 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 37.2 39.0 / 44.0
Assists 27.9 / 33.0 28.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.3 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 48.1 53.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 65.5 92.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 49.6 / 44.5 48.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.4 / 9.7 10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 13.3 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
ATL
TOR
ATL
ML
55% 57-47
50% 52-52
55% 48-39
55% 48-40
ATS
61% 62-40-2
53% 55-48-1
55% 48-39
55% 48-40
TTL
60% 62-42
53% 55-48-1
100% 87-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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