Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Spartans SAM @ UNCG

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

8-6  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

5-9  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
BULLDOGS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Samford)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

72.6%

Spartans Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAM -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

SAM By 1-7 points

26.8%

SAM By 8-14 points

24.3%

UNCG By 1-7 points

16.9%

UNCG By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
58
SAMFORD
52
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
71
SAMFORD
74
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 UNCG @ SAM 78 - 87
Jan 3, 2026 SAM @ UNCG 82 - 89
Mar 1, 2025 SAM @ UNCG 100 - 108
Jan 11, 2025 UNCG @ SAM 69 - 76
Feb 8, 2024 SAM @ UNCG 78 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +79.6% more
Samford: 3.6 vs UNC Greensboro: 0.7
Assists (L5) +19.1% more
Samford: 19.3 vs UNC Greensboro: 15.6
Steals (L5) +21.6% more
UNC Greensboro: 6.6 vs Samford: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
UNC Greensboro: 70.9% vs Samford: 59.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 58.0 82
UNCG Score 52.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 34.6 69.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.6 / 19.3 12.0 / 19.0
Blocks 0.7 / 3.6 0.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 46.7 47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 59.5 73.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 43.9 37.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.6 / 5.4 4.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 9.3 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
SAM
UNCG
SAM
ML
38% 13-21
65% 20-11
71% 24-10
68% 21-10
ATS
44% 15-19
68% 21-10
71% 24-10
68% 21-10
TTL
76% 26-8
35% 11-20
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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