STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
11-2 | Road
73
SE LOUISIANA
LIONSSELA
4-9 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
LIONS
100%
LUMBERJACKS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Stephen F. Austin)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SFA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SFA)
SFA By 1-7 points
6.8%
SFA By 8-14 points
16.9%
SELA By 1-7 points
1.4%
SELA By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Stephen F. Austin
85
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
SE Louisiana
64
SE LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
Stephen F. Austin
70
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
SE Louisiana
72
SE LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lumberjacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lumberjacks (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
SELA @ SFA
58 - 85
Jan 3, 2026
SFA @ SELA
73 - 63
Jan 13, 2025
SELA @ SFA
66 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+35.6% more
Stephen F. Austin: 15.9
vs
SE Louisiana: 10.2
Rebounding (L5)
+19.4% more
Stephen F. Austin: 43.1
vs
SE Louisiana: 34.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.1%
Stephen F. Austin: 35.2%
vs
SE Louisiana: 27.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Stephen F. Austin: 45.8%
vs
SE Louisiana: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFA Score
85.0
73
SELA Score
64.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.1 / 35.2
35.0 / 31.0
Assists
10.2 / 15.9
10.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.7
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 45.8
40.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
75.6 / 67.1
91.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 43.1
30.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.9 / 6.9
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 8.9
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
SELA
9-22-0
(29.0%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
SELA
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -5.4
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SELA
SFA
SELA
SFA
ML
70%
21-9
59%
17-12
66%
19-10
79%
23-6
ATS
60%
18-12
59%
17-12
67%
20-10
79%
23-6
TTL
70%
21-9
62%
18-11
100%
30-0
100%
29-0
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