Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Hawks MORG @ UMES

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

3-11  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:30 PM ET
Hytche Center
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

4-13  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
HAWKS
0%
BEARS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Maryland Eastern Shore)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 HawksUMES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

1.1%

Hawks Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMES -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMES)

MORG By 1-7 points

0.8%

MORG By 8-14 points

0.1%

UMES By 1-7 points

4.8%

UMES By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MORGAN STATE
90
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Simulated Score
68
MORGAN STATE
72
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawks (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 UMES @ MORG 71 - 79
Jan 3, 2026 MORG @ UMES 49 - 66
Mar 1, 2025 MORG @ UMES 75 - 72
Feb 1, 2025 UMES @ MORG 63 - 76
Feb 17, 2024 UMES @ MORG 65 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.4% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 15.3 vs Morgan State: 13.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Maryland Eastern Shore: 45.8% vs Morgan State: 42.8%
Blocks (L5) +43.1% more
Morgan State: 3.1 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +10.1% more
Morgan State: 33.5 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 30.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 67.0 49
UMES Score 90.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 38.4 24.0 / 19.0
Assists 15.3 / 13.7 12.0 / 7.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.1 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 42.8 41.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 70.0 67.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 33.5 41.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.8 / 4.9 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 13.3 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
UMES
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
UMES
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMES
MORG
UMES
MORG
ML
66% 21-11
50% 14-14
81% 21-5
58% 14-10
ATS
69% 22-10
50% 14-14
81% 21-5
58% 14-10
TTL
66% 21-11
50% 14-14
100% 26-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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