Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Thundering Herd APP @ MRSH

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

9-6  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

9-5  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Marshall)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

0.2%

Thundering Herd Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

APP By 1-7 points

0.1%

APP By 8-14 points

0.0%

MRSH By 1-7 points

1.4%

MRSH By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
56
APP STATE
85
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
72
APP STATE
76
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thundering Herd Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Thundering Herd (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 MRSH @ APP 94 - 93
Jan 3, 2026 APP @ MRSH 81 - 88
Feb 28, 2025 APP @ MRSH 57 - 75
Feb 22, 2025 MRSH @ APP 69 - 59
Feb 24, 2024 APP @ MRSH 65 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +150.5% more
Marshall: 5.5 vs App State: 2.2
Steals (L5) +31.7% more
Marshall: 6.3 vs App State: 4.8
Assists (L5) +20.0% more
Marshall: 15.3 vs App State: 12.8
Turnovers (L5) +18.7% more
Marshall: 13.0 vs App State: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 56.0 81
MRSH Score 85.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 34.2 50.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.3 / 12.8 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.5 / 2.2 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 47.5 53.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 61.6 72.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 40.7 32.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 11.0 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
MRSH
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
APP
MRSH
APP
ML
70% 21-9
62% 20-12
62% 18-11
59% 19-13
ATS
70% 21-9
59% 19-13
62% 18-11
59% 19-13
TTL
50% 15-15
69% 22-10
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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