SOUTH ALABAMA
JAGUARSUSA
11-4 | Road
49
TROY
TROJANSTROY
9-5 | Home
59
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
TROJANS
0%
JAGUARS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
USA By 1-7 points
3.3%
USA By 8-14 points
0.6%
TROY By 1-7 points
12.2%
TROY By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
South Alabama
51
SOUTH ALABAMA
Troy
68
TROY
Simulated Score
South Alabama
70
SOUTH ALABAMA
Troy
75
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
TROY @ USA
54 - 65
Jan 3, 2026
USA @ TROY
49 - 59
Jan 25, 2025
USA @ TROY
55 - 65
Jan 18, 2025
TROY @ USA
63 - 64
Jan 27, 2024
USA @ TROY
79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+71.1% more
Troy: 16.5
vs
South Alabama: 9.6
Blocks (L5)
+25.4% more
Troy: 3.6
vs
South Alabama: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+17.3% more
Troy: 9.6
vs
South Alabama: 8.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.9%
Troy: 44.0%
vs
South Alabama: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USA Score
51.0
49
TROY Score
68.0
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.0 / 31.0
31.0 / 17.0
Assists
16.5 / 9.6
17.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 46.2
34.0 / 32.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 75.7
57.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 35.5
40.0 / 37.0
Steals
9.6 / 8.2
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 10.9
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
TROY
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.3
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
USA
TROY
USA
ML
59%
20-14
47%
15-17
61%
20-13
57%
17-13
ATS
65%
22-12
53%
17-15
61%
20-13
57%
17-13
TTL
56%
19-15
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
Heat Fill Training Camp Roster with Rookie Signings, Keep Option…
USC Freshmen Shine in 49-30 Victory Over Louisiana
Houston Cougars Set to Host Southern Jaguars in Week 2 Clash at …
Marcus Freeman's Relentless Fire: How a Deep-Seated Hatred of Lo…