Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Buccaneers MER @ ETSU

MERCER

BEARSMER

8-6  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 4:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

9-5  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
BEARS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (East Tennessee State)
BearsMER (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

27.4%

Buccaneers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

MER By 1-7 points

16.9%

MER By 8-14 points

6.8%

ETSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

ETSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
53
MERCER
59
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
71
MERCER
75
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 ETSU @ MER 76 - 82
Jan 3, 2026 MER @ ETSU 71 - 77
Feb 26, 2025 MER @ ETSU 58 - 59
Jan 8, 2025 ETSU @ MER 70 - 68
Jan 31, 2024 ETSU @ MER 54 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.6% more
East Tennessee State: 12.7 vs Mercer: 11.3
Free Throw % (L5) +11.6%
East Tennessee State: 77.4% vs Mercer: 65.8%
Steals (L5) +11.2% more
East Tennessee State: 8.8 vs Mercer: 8.0
Turnovers (L5) +9.1% more
East Tennessee State: 10.8 vs Mercer: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MER Score 53.0 71
ETSU Score 59.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 30.9 32.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.7 / 11.3 8.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.6 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 42.7 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 65.8 85.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 30.7 / 37.4 40.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.0 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 9.9 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
MER
ETSU
MER
ML
42% 14-19
55% 17-14
70% 23-10
71% 22-9
ATS
58% 19-14
58% 18-13
70% 23-10
71% 22-9
TTL
45% 15-18
61% 19-12
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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