UALBANY
GREAT DANESUALB
4-11 | Road
71
UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
5-10 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
GREAT DANES
0%
RIVER HAWKS
100%
GREAT DANES
--
RIVER HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
UALBANY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (UAlbany)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UALB -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UALB)
UALB By 1-7 points
5.8%
UALB By 8-14 points
15.3%
UML By 1-7 points
1.1%
UML By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
UAlbany
95
UALBANY
UMass Lowell
73
UMASS LOWELL
Simulated Score
UAlbany
71
UALBANY
UMass Lowell
75
UMASS LOWELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Great Danes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
River Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Great Danes (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
River Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UALB @ UML
76 - 81
Feb 7, 2026
UML @ UALB
89 - 79
Jan 3, 2026
UALB @ UML
71 - 83
Feb 13, 2025
UALB @ UML
90 - 88
Jan 4, 2025
UML @ UALB
73 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.3% more
UAlbany: 4.3
vs
UMass Lowell: 2.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.2%
UAlbany: 68.5%
vs
UMass Lowell: 54.2%
Assists (L5)
+11.2% more
UAlbany: 14.5
vs
UMass Lowell: 12.9
Steals (L5)
+14.9% more
UMass Lowell: 6.1
vs
UAlbany: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UALB Score
95.0
71
UML Score
73.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 38.0
31.0 / 28.0
Assists
12.9 / 14.5
14.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.9 / 4.3
7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 47.1
49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
54.2 / 68.5
71.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 32.3
42.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.1 / 5.3
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 12.1
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UALB
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UML
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UALB
11-18-0
(37.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UML
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UALB
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +0.3
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UML
UALB
UML
UALB
ML
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
71%
22-9
ATS
70%
23-10
77%
24-7
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
TTL
58%
19-14
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
