Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Bulls BALL @ BUF

BALL STATE

CARDINALSBALL

4-9  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 2:00 PM ET
Alumni Arena
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BULLSBUF

12-2  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
BULLS
0%
CARDINALS --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Buffalo)
CardinalsBALL (-3.5) 0 BullsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

0.1%

Bulls Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUF -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BALL By 1-7 points

0.1%

BALL By 8-14 points

0.0%

BUF By 1-7 points

1.1%

BUF By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
51
BALL STATE
81
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
71
BALL STATE
78
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 11, 2026 BUF @ BALL 63 - 53
Jan 3, 2026 BALL @ BUF 72 - 85
Feb 22, 2025 BUF @ BALL 66 - 80
Feb 1, 2025 BALL @ BUF 89 - 76
Jan 23, 2024 BALL @ BUF 87 - 59
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.6%
Buffalo: 38.5% vs Ball State: 26.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Buffalo: 47.9% vs Ball State: 41.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Buffalo: 74.5% vs Ball State: 72.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 51.0 72
BUF Score 81.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 26.0 45.0 / 36.0
Assists 13.4 / 13.3 19.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.6 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 41.7 57.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 72.6 94.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 32.0 30.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.7 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 10.1 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
BUF Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.3
BUF Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9% Total +/-: -6.2
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
BALL
BUF
BALL
ML
45% 14-17
43% 13-17
45% 14-17
62% 18-11
ATS
55% 17-14
67% 20-10
45% 14-17
62% 18-11
TTL
48% 15-16
50% 15-15
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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