Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Minutemen BGSU @ MASS

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

10-4  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 2:00 PM ET
Mullins Center
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

MINUTEMENMASS

9-5  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
📊
MINUTEMEN
100%
FALCONS --
MINUTEMEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Bowling Green)
FalconsBGSU (-3.5) 0 MinutemenMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

75.8%

Minutemen Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BGSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

BGSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

BGSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

MASS By 1-7 points

15.3%

MASS By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
79
BOWLING GREEN
72
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
72
BOWLING GREEN
75
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Falcons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Minutemen Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Falcons (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Minutemen (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 MASS @ BGSU 62 - 81
Jan 3, 2026 BGSU @ MASS 101 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.1% more
Bowling Green: 12.9 vs Massachusetts: 7.1
Assists (L5) +13.3% more
Bowling Green: 17.7 vs Massachusetts: 15.3
Field Goal % (L5) +8.9%
Bowling Green: 51.2% vs Massachusetts: 42.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.7%
Bowling Green: 74.9% vs Massachusetts: 67.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 79.0 101
MASS Score 72.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 30.8 50.0 / 41.0
Assists 15.3 / 17.7 27.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.0 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 51.2 56.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 67.2 / 74.9 71.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 35.5 37.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.1 / 12.9 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.8 18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
MASS
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
MASS
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
BGSU
MASS
BGSU
ML
44% 14-18
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
ATS
47% 15-17
72% 23-9
68% 21-10
56% 18-14
TTL
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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