Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Chippewas TOL @ CMU

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

7-6  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 3:00 PM ET
McGuirk Arena
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

CHIPPEWASCMU

4-10  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
CHIPPEWAS
0%
ROCKETS --
CHIPPEWAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Central Michigan)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 ChippewasCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

30.9%

Chippewas Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

TOL By 1-7 points

18.6%

TOL By 8-14 points

8.0%

CMU By 1-7 points

27.2%

CMU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
80
TOLEDO
85
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
71
TOLEDO
78
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chippewas Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chippewas Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chippewas (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Chippewas (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 TOL @ CMU 78 - 75
Jan 10, 2025 CMU @ TOL 67 - 69
Jan 19, 2024 TOL @ CMU 62 - 65
Feb 28, 2023 TOL @ CMU 99 - 65
Feb 4, 2023 CMU @ TOL 59 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.7% more
Central Michigan: 5.1 vs Toledo: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +40.6% more
Central Michigan: 12.1 vs Toledo: 8.6
Rebounding (L5) +18.6% more
Toledo: 37.2 vs Central Michigan: 30.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Toledo: 26.8% vs Central Michigan: 18.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 80.0 78
CMU Score 85.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 18.3 / 26.8 42.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.3 / 12.7 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.1 / 3.3 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 42.1 48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 75.4 75.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 30.3 / 37.2 28.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 8.6 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
CMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
CMU
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
CMU
13-16-0
O: 44.8% / U: 55.2% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
TOL
CMU
TOL
ML
57% 17-13
48% 16-17
70% 21-9
61% 20-13
ATS
67% 20-10
48% 16-17
70% 21-9
61% 20-13
TTL
67% 20-10
64% 21-12
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days, 1 hour ago
Miami Hurricanes Hit Hard: Top Two Running Backs Out, Jordan Lyl…
si 1 week, 5 days ago
Kyrie Irving Declares Himself Ready, Cooper Flagg Reveals Growth…
yardbarker 1 week, 6 days ago
Chris Spatola, Duke Basketball Analyst and Mike Krzyzewski's Son…
cbsnews 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Chris Spatola, Former Duke Assistant and ESPN Analyst, Dies at 47
pennlive 2 weeks, 1 day ago