Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rams @ Lopes CSU @ GCU

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

9-4  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

8-4  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
📊
LOPES
100%
RAMS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Colorado State)
RamsCSU (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

81.6%

Lopes Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

CSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

CSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

GCU By 1-7 points

12.2%

GCU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
65
COLORADO STATE
56
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
71
COLORADO STATE
75
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 CSU @ GCU 70 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +57.2% more
Colorado State: 3.6 vs Grand Canyon: 1.5
Rebounding (L5) +20.1% more
Grand Canyon: 37.1 vs Colorado State: 30.9
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Grand Canyon: 12.9 vs Colorado State: 11.5
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Grand Canyon: 78.2% vs Colorado State: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 65.0 70
GCU Score 56.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 34.3 29.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.7 / 13.8 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.5 / 3.6 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 46.3 39.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 73.4 62.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 30.9 29.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.8 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 11.5 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
GCU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
CSU
GCU
CSU
ML
66% 21-11
56% 19-15
68% 21-10
65% 20-11
ATS
72% 23-9
62% 21-13
68% 21-10
65% 20-11
TTL
44% 14-18
56% 19-15
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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