XAVIER
MUSKETEERSXAV
9-5 | Road
77
DEPAUL
BLUE DEMONSDEP
8-6 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
100%
BLUE DEMONS
0%
MUSKETEERS
--
BLUE DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DEPAUL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (DePaul)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEP -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEP)
XAV By 1-7 points
23.0%
XAV By 8-14 points
12.2%
DEP By 1-7 points
26.8%
DEP By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Xavier
69
XAVIER
DePaul
71
DEPAUL
Simulated Score
Xavier
65
XAVIER
DePaul
78
DEPAUL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Demons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Demons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Demons (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Blue Demons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
DEP @ XAV
66 - 68
Jan 3, 2026
XAV @ DEP
77 - 86
Feb 15, 2025
DEP @ XAV
68 - 85
Jan 11, 2025
XAV @ DEP
77 - 63
Feb 28, 2024
DEP @ XAV
58 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+21.1% more
DePaul: 13.0
vs
Xavier: 10.8
Assists (L5)
+31.8% more
Xavier: 18.7
vs
DePaul: 12.7
Steals (L5)
+18.8% more
Xavier: 6.5
vs
DePaul: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
XAV Score
69.0
77
DEP Score
71.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.0 / 28.7
38.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.7 / 18.7
17.0 / 19.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.6
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 43.2
50.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
65.9 / 66.3
81.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 34.1
35.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.3 / 6.5
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 10.8
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
DEP
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
DEP
Advantage
18-12-2
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
DEP
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6%
Total +/-: -5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEP
XAV
DEP
XAV
ML
59%
19-13
58%
19-14
80%
24-6
72%
23-9
ATS
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
80%
24-6
72%
23-9
TTL
53%
17-15
39%
13-20
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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