Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Ramblers DAY @ LUC

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

10-4  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 2:00 PM ET
Gentile Arena
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA CHICAGO

RAMBLERSLUC

5-9  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
RAMBLERS
0%
FLYERS --
RAMBLERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
104.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
LOYOLA CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Loyola Chicago)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 RamblersLUC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

21.2%

Ramblers Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LUC -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LUC)

DAY By 1-7 points

13.7%

DAY By 8-14 points

4.8%

LUC By 1-7 points

25.3%

LUC By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
48
DAYTON
56
LOYOLA CHICAGO
Simulated Score
70
DAYTON
75
LOYOLA CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ramblers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ramblers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ramblers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Ramblers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 104.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 16, 2026 LUC @ DAY 51 - 78
Jan 3, 2026 DAY @ LUC 70 - 68
Feb 21, 2025 DAY @ LUC 72 - 76
Jan 18, 2025 LUC @ DAY 81 - 83
Mar 1, 2024 DAY @ LUC 72 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.1% more
Loyola Chicago: 14.7 vs Dayton: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Loyola Chicago: 77.4% vs Dayton: 72.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Loyola Chicago: 33.1% vs Dayton: 29.5%
Steals (L5) +55.2% more
Dayton: 9.1 vs Loyola Chicago: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 48.0 70
LUC Score 56.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 29.5 30.0 / 30.0
Assists 10.8 / 13.6 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.4 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 44.1 42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.4 / 72.8 60.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 34.6 43.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.1 / 9.1 1.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 10.0 15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
LUC
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -4.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
LUC
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -4.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
LUC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LUC
DAY
LUC
DAY
ML
55% 18-15
65% 24-13
50% 16-16
64% 23-13
ATS
64% 21-12
68% 25-12
50% 16-16
64% 23-13
TTL
76% 25-8
57% 21-16
100% 32-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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