MISSISSIPPI STATE
BULLDOGSMSST
8-5 | Road
101
TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
9-4 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
LONGHORNS
100%
BULLDOGS
--
LONGHORNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Mississippi State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSST -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)
MSST By 1-7 points
0.3%
MSST By 8-14 points
1.7%
TEX By 1-7 points
0.0%
TEX By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Mississippi State
88
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Texas
53
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Mississippi State
68
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Texas
72
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Longhorns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Longhorns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 3, 2026
MSST @ TEX
101 - 98
Mar 4, 2025
TEX @ MSST
87 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+36.3% more
Mississippi State: 4.0
vs
Texas: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+12.8% more
Mississippi State: 14.0
vs
Texas: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Mississippi State: 35.5%
vs
Texas: 33.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
Texas: 74.5%
vs
Mississippi State: 67.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSST Score
88.0
101
TEX Score
53.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.1 / 35.5
28.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.2 / 14.0
12.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.0
1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
50.1 / 48.3
48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.5 / 67.7
73.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
40.1 / 41.4
39.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.6 / 7.6
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 11.0
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -4.4
TEX
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: -4.4
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.1
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MSST
TEX
MSST
ML
58%
21-15
66%
21-11
56%
19-15
55%
17-14
ATS
56%
20-16
56%
18-14
56%
19-15
55%
17-14
TTL
64%
23-13
59%
19-13
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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